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Wednesday 30 November 2016
58th Annual Conference of the South African Statistical Association
28th November to 1st December 2016 University of Cape Town
8:00 - 10:00
Club house
Theoretical statistics
Chair: Johan Ferreira
Berg
Ecological statistics
Chair: Victoria Goodall
Tugela
Financial statistics
Chair: Henri Moolman
Congo
Spatial statistics
Chair: Christine Kraamwinkel
Kamwi, Koen, Kazembe: Characterization of bias in misspecified power law distribution
Boyd, Winker, Altwegg, Kerwath: Fishery, population dynamics and stock assessment of geelbek (Atractoscion aequidens), a commercially important migrant fish species off the coast of South Africa
Combrink: A robust construction of the efficiency frontier using resampling and shrinkage techniques
Fabris-Rotelli: A point process model for DPT pulses
Maposa, Cochran, Lesaoana: Towards application of spatial statistics of extremes to the extreme flood heights in the lower Limpopo River basin of Mozambique
Huang, North, Zewotir: A conditional extreme value approach to value-at-risk estimation with exchangeable innovation
Geldenhuys: Using Species Distribution Models for spatial conservation planning of African penguins
Omachar, van Staden: The two-piece hyperbolic secant distribution
Millard, Kanfer: Mixture regression using t-distributed errors
Hugo, Altwegg: The second Southern African Bird Atlas Project: causes and consequences of geographical sampling bias
Kruger, Rajaratnam, Huang: A Comparative Aanlysis of Aggregational Gaussianity for JSE-listed Shares and Indices
Thiart, Haines, Jacob, Prins: Determining Sample line spacing for a Marine Diamond deposit based on D-optimality
Ilupeju, Chifurira, Chinahmu: Modelling South Africa's marker risk using the APARCH model and heavy-tailed distributions
Photopoulou, Leos-Barajas: Using hidden Markov models for the analysis of animal acceleration data
Kanfer, Millard: Mixture of mixed effects regression with t-distributed error and random components
Venter: Survival probability for a defended system
van der Merwe, Periquet: The eating habits of bat-eared foxes
Naradh, Chinhamu, Chifura, Hammujuddy: Multivariate Stable distributions and its applications for BRICS financial data
10:00 - 10:30
12:40 - 13:40
Zambezi
Climate and extreme value theory
Chair: Yehenew Kifle
Kei
Time Series
Chair: Jaco Visagie
Musyoka, Omony, Mwalili, Achia, Gichangi, Ahmed, Joseph, Marano, Mwambi: Modeling the effect of climate on incidence of of respiratory syncytial virus infections in a refugee camp in Kenya: A non-Guassian time-series analysis
Diriba, Debusho: Random Effect Approach for Extreme Wind Speed in South Africa
Pillay, Naidoo: Benchmarking time seriesusing the Fernandez Optimisation technique for South African private sector companies and municipalities
Nemukula, Sigauke: Modelling average maximum daily temperature using r largest order statistics: An application to South African data
Sjolander, Meades: Inference on Time Series Models for Paired Comparisons
Sigauke: Modelling heat waves and their impact on electricity demand
MacDonald: Some models for discrete-valued time series
Smit, Kijko, Fabris-Rotelli, van Staden: New Procedures for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment from incomplete and Uncertain Data
Viljoen: Investigating Stepwise Common Singular Specturm analysis and Multi-channel Singular Spectrum Analysis
Tea / Coffee
10:30 - 11:10
Congo Chair: Linda Haines
Ogusakin, Lougue: Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Model of Breast Cancer Patients
Mazarura: A comparison of the performrance of latent Dirichelet allocation and the Dirichelet multinomial mixture model on short text
Pienaar, Varughese: Jump Reverting Diffusions and Parity to Continuous-Time Reversion
Hendriks, Crafford: The analysis of grouped response variables in a multifactor design
Musekiwa, Manda, Mwambi: Longitudinal Meta-analysis of Multiple Effect Sizes
Crafford, Ehlers: Estimation of Multilevel Models with Interactive Generalised Least Squares
Majakwara, Pal: Destructive COM-Poisson Cure Rate Model and Associated Likelihood inference under Lognormal Lifetime
Schutte, Schutte, Wissing: Applying multidimensional item response theory models in assessing dimensionality of the Mental Health Continuum Short Form (MHC-SF)
Kei
Multivariate Data Analysis
Chair: Dominique Katshunga
Zambezi
Biostatistics
Chair: Greg Distiller
Ngwenya: Building Robust Systems Adept at Handling Concept Drift
Mavuso: Mean-Variance Hedging of Basis Risk
Kebotsmang: Pareto Optimal Space-filling Designs
Visagie: On generalised gamma convolution processes in time changed models
Ludick: Stochastic Processes in South Synthesis
Kraamwinkel, Fabris-Rotelli: Spatial sampling for rabies vaccination schedule
van Biljon, Panman: On the quantification of model risk in statistical models of empirical data
Verster, Venter: A predictive approach towards automatic descretization using data splitting
Zitzke, Neuhoff: Using Text Analytcs to Analyse Research Papers
Panman, Haasbroek, Pieters: Estimating correlations within operational loss data
Khuluse-Makhanya, Stein, Debba: Identifying local emission sources of particulate matter to improve geostatistical mapping of PM10
Beichelt: A Statistical First Passage Time Problem in System Replacement
Congo
Business Analytics
Chair: Melvin Varughese
Tugela
Financial statistics
Chair: Mardi Jankowitz
Berg
Spatial statistics
Chair: Christien Thiart
Club house
Stochastic processes
Chair: Delson Chikobvu
11:20 - 12:40
Chatora, Little Barnes: Joint models for zero inflated nonlinear profiles
Reynolds, Fabris-Rotelli, Loots: Design-based spatial sampling
Chule: Market risk spectrum perfromance on the Diebold-Mariano framework using statistical arbitrage
Bergh: Predictive Analytics & SPSS in the business world
14:40 - 16:00
Lau, Fabris-Rotelli: Dependence structures in multi-dimensional arrays
10:00 - 10:30
Tea / Coffee
16:00 - 16:20
16:20 - 17:40
Katshunga: A multiple function response model with historical effects
Batidzirai, Manda, Mwambi: Gaussian Processes in analyzing big data: An application with multilevel models
Alger, Findlay: Quantifying the shape of social conversations
Mugenyi, Abrams, Smith, Staedke, Hens: Estimating age-time dependent malaria force of infection accounting for unobserved heterogeneity
Roberts: Anaemia in children: The contribution of malaria to the burden
Phaweni: Text Classification with Network Based Features
Kei
Multivariate data analysis
Chair: Johané Nienkemper-Swanepoel
Zambezi
Biostatistics
Chair: Chris Muller
Oppel, Loots, Beyers: Accelerated test with an application to too-bit-to-fail portfolios
Harvey, van der Merwe: The Performance of Non-Informative Priors for the Bivariate Lognormal Distribution
Mfeka, Zondo, Lougue: Grade repetition in school - The case of South Africa
Mokobane, Lesoana: Application of small area estimation methods in modelling lack of service delivery at ward level: water, sanitation and electricity in South Africa
Raubenheimer: Fiducial and objective Bayesian inference for the difference between two binomial proportions
Lakhoo Lala: Enhanced Minimum Variance Optimisation - A pragmatic approach
Dlamini, Durbach: Indivudal identification of animals using acoustics
Varughese: Anomaly detection
Dalmeyer, Bradfield: Robust Portfolio Construction
Krikland, de Waal, Haas: A Bayesian Approach to Green Security Games: Initial Perspectives
Brettenny, Sharp: The effect of the National Benchmarking Initiative (NBI) on the Efficiency of Water Service Provision in South Africa
Congo
Data Science
Chair: Miguel Lacerda
Tugela
Financial statistics
Chair: Willie Conradie
Berg
Bayesian statistics
Chair: Abrie van der Merwe
Club house
General
Chair: Jenny Holloway
Matizirofa: Predictors of blood pressure in South Africa: Quantile regression Approach
Obaromi, Qin, James, Adeboye, Odeyemi: Robustness and flexibility modeling of the prior for the unstructured spatial random effect in a disease mapping model
Maribe, Verster, Beirlant: Reducing bias and MSE in estimation of heavy tails: a Bayesian approach
Raubenehimer, de Jongh, Lombard: A multiplier approach for approximating and estimating extreme quantiles of compound frequency distributions using the less extreme quantiles of the severity distribution
Lubbe, Leclezio, de Vries: Multivariate analysis to find natural clusters of Tuberous Sclerosis Complex Associated Neuropsychiatric Disorders
Adeyemi, Zewotir, Ramroop: Bayesian multinomial ordinal model to analyse the spatial patterns of childhood anaemia in Tanzania
Ntushelo, Minnaar, Mgqumba: Multiple Factor Analysis and Principal Components Analysis with FactoMineR in exploratoyry data analysis of White wines
Azeez, Mdege, Odeyemi, Mutambayi, Obaromi: A Mathematical model for transmission mechanism of TB/HIV co-infection
Mutambayi, Ndege, Azeez, Odeyemi, Qui: Assesment of Risk Determinants in the Regularity of Malaria Using Cox Proportional Approach
Nasejje, Justing, Mwambi, Lesosky: The effects of the splitting rule on the predictive performance of random survival forests
Kei
Multivariate Data Analysis
Chair: Gretel Crafford
Zambezi
Biostatistics
Chair: Henry Mwambi
Shongwe: Some important remarks regarding the zero-state and steady-state runs-type control charts
von Maltiz, Hen-Boien, van der Merwe: Examining the impact of first-year developmental modules using the potential outcomes approach
Moolman: Variable selection advanced in regression using R
Uys: Income estimation
Burger, van der Merwe, Schall, Teise: Bayesian Statistical Inference for Ectoparasiticide Efficacy in Animal Trials
van Zyl, Lombard: Distribution-free cusums for location and scale
Chanza, Khamfula, Mhlanga: Forecasting electricity consumption in South Africa using SARIMA models
Pokolo, Pazvakawambwa: A Time series ARIMA model for rainfall for Katima Mulilo Town of Namibia, 2003-2015
Mijburg, Human, Bekker: Distributional development of ratios of gamma variables with application to a changepoint model in statistical process control
van Niekerk, Bekker, Arashi: Multivariate Bayesian computation
Mulenga, Er, Brouze; Validity of the Psychological Capital Questionnaire in the South African context
Congo
Time series and electricity
Chair: Lienki Viljoen
Tugela
Process Control
Chair: André Mostert
Berg
Bayesian statistics
Chair: Lizanne Raubenheimer
Club house
General
Chair: Dorette Bekker
Ring, Grill, Day, Brannath, Schall: Evaluation of differential treatment effects in subgroups of patients in clinical trials
Ngutati, Pazvakawambwa: Determinants of contraceptive use among unmarried women of Namibia: An analysis of the 2013 DHS
Gqwaka, Brettenny, Sharp: Efficiency Analysis of Electricity Distribution by South African Municipalities: A Cost Frontier Approach
Mokuele, Kanfer, Millard: Latent Class Mixed Effects Models with Application in Conjoint Analysis
Walk in Kirstenbosch gardens
18:00 - 19:00
19:00 - 22:00
Gala dinner at Moyo's, Kirstenbosch
Stein: Dealing with uncertainty in spatial big data studies
Anestis Antoniadis: Estimation and group variable selection for additive partial linear models with wavelets and splines
Bassett: Machine learning and Inference Challenges in Astronomy
Masoumi, Karakani, van Niekerk, van Staden: Subjective Bayesian Analysis under the AR(1) model
Congo
Data Scientists group
Chair: Frans Karner
Tugela
Industrial group
Chair: TBA
Berg
Bayesian group
Chair: Lizanne Ruabenheimer
Zambezi
SUSAN-IBS and South Africa Region of the IBS
Chair: Iain MacDonald
Kei
MDAG
Chair: Sugnet Lubbe
Society meetings
13:40 - 14:40
Mokilane: Density forecasting of long-term electricity demand in South Africa using Quantile Regression
Dziwa, Adékambi: Moment of the discounted compound renewal cash flows with dependence: The use of Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern Copula
8:20 start
8:20 start
8:20 start
8:20 start
Oluyede: A New Class of Distributions for Survival and Lifetime Data Analysis: Theory and Applications
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